Diogo Canteras, Founding Partner - HotelInvest

Investing in the hotel industry during periods of instability may seem challenging, but it also proves to be one of the best opportunities to acquire quality assets with greater potential for appreciation. The key is understanding how economic cycles affect tourism, corporate demand, and investor behavior. In many cases, periods of uncertainty reduce the appetite for new developments, opening up space for already established operations to become more attractive for acquisition—a strategy adopted by several specialized funds that prioritize operational assets with a good price-to-return ratio.

Macroeconomic analysis is essential. High interest rates increase financing costs, pressure valuations, and reduce the viability of new projects. On the other hand, they also decrease future competition, which tends to strengthen the performance of existing hotels in the medium term. Similarly, exchange rate variations influence consumer behavior. The devaluation of the real makes international travel more expensive and usually encourages substitution with domestic destinations, which can benefit the national hotel industry even in times of uncertainty.

Another important aspect is the correct interpretation of the hotel cycle. Even in uncertain scenarios, many markets show resilience or accelerated recovery—especially urban destinations with strong corporate demand and cities with structuring events. Evaluating indicators such as occupancy, average daily rate, and the pipeline of new rooms helps identify where the recovery tends to be faster and more sustainable.

The acquisition price remains a determining factor. Unstable markets often offer discounted assets, increasing the positive asymmetry for the long-term investor. However, the choice of operation is equally relevant. Ventures managed by established brands and experienced operators tend to weather adverse periods with greater stability and recovery capacity. There is even a widely discussed perception in the sector that acquisitions made after the initial operating cycle—when the asset has already demonstrated its real performance—can generate more consistent results, provided the investor has discipline and rigor in the analysis.

In short, instability does not mean a lack of opportunity, but rather the need for a more qualified and strategic analysis. Investors who combine economic reading, cycle vision, and due diligence in the purchase tend to capture above-average value in times like the present.